The period from July 2013 to the elections of January 2018 featured several changes in Turkish Cypriot politics; the election of Mustafa Akinci, an independent candidate who defeated in April 2015 the incumbent President Derviş Eroğlu was the most prominent. Akinci secured 60% of the vote in the second round, a landslide victory. The poor performance of the Republican Turkish Party’s – CTP candidate triggered internal frictions, with Mehmet Ali Talat, who lost the election to Eroğlu in 2010, challenging the leader of CTP and head of the government Özkan Yorgancıoğlu for the party’s leadership. Talat’s win forced Yorgancıoğlu to resign, which led to three different coalition governments, nine cabinets, alternating in power, until the holding of early elections in January 2018.

In summer 2013, the Republican Turkish Party United Forces (Cumhuriyetçi Türk Partisi Birleşik Güçler) – CTP formed a coalition government with the Democratic Party (Demokrat Partisi) – DP, headed by CTP’s leader Özkan Yorgancıoğlu. Two years later, CTP, with Ömer Soyer Kalyoncu, its new leader, formed a short-lived cabinet with the National Unity Party (Ulusal Birlik Partisi) – UBP, succeeded in April 2016 by a coalition of the conservative parties UBP and DP, and independents.

The election of Mustafa Akıncı in April 2015 marked a new course in negotiations for the resolution of the Cyprus Problem. There were signs of good understanding with Nicos Anastasiades, President of the Republic of Cyprus, elected in 2013, which created high hopes for an end to the division of the island. However, while the two sides reached a point of agreement in negotiations in Crans Montana, Switzerland, with the participation of Greece and Turkey, under the auspices of the Secretary General in person, the process collapsed. Many, including the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker, have blamed Nicos Anastasiades as unwilling to reach a federal solution, proposing behind the scenes a two-state solution instead. At the time of the 2018 elections, there was no sign for resuming the talks, which apparently favoured political parties opposing federation.

During the short period of electoral campaign, internal politics dominated, most of them related to the role of Turkey in Turkish Cypriot affairs. Besides the presence of tens of thousands of Turkish soldiers in the northern part of Cyprus and the control this implies, an issue of concern for Turkish Cypriots was the open attempt by Ankara to enforce islamisation with the building of tens of new mosques and imposing Islamic rules in education. This was in conflict with the feelings and practices that have always dominated among the community members; while being and feeling Muslims, secularity prevailed their lives, which they wanted to preserve.

Interference by Turkey has been a dominant figure in various ways: Ankara has been financing the self-proclaimed TRNC, there have been over time tens of protocols signed between Nicosia and Ankara in various sectors, while Turkish and AKP officials have been often involved in internal politics, in support of the conservative forces. Their influence has not been limited in communities inhabited by Turkish nationals, settlers, who started arriving or transferred to the island after the 1974 invasion of the Turkish Army; it extended to nationalist groups. Left wing parties and politicians had denounced Ankara’s interference in elections, at various occasions. To remind also that interference in the election of UBP leader in 2012 caused a raw between the Turkish government and the Turkish Cypriot leader Derviş Eroğlu, who favoured another person than the incumbent.

Turkey’s influence proceeded via, among other factors, a sustained effort to offer citizenship to Turks transferred to the island mostly in the framework of plans to colonise it. Settlers from Turkey have formed a significant portion of the electorate.

The dire state of the economy was also an important issue during the campaign; the de facto devaluation of the Turkish lira, the official currency in the self-proclaimed state, had contributed to the decline of income and rise of prices affecting people’s cost of living.

The political forces that participated in the 2018 elections were as follows:

The National Unity Party (Ulusal Birlik Partisi) – UBP, with Hüseyin Özgürgün.

The Republican Turkish Party (Cumhuriyetçi Türk Partisi) – CTP, with Tufan Erhürman, who succeeded to Mehmet Ali Talat, in November 2016.

The Democratic Party (Demokrat Partisi) – DP with Serdar Denktaş.

The Communal Democracy Party (Toplumcu Demokrasi Partisi) – TDP, headed by Cemal Özyiğit, who succeeded to Mehmet Çakıcı after the latter left the party with other dissidents in 2016.

The Rebirth Party (Yeniden Doğuş Partisi – YDP) a settlers’ party founded by Erhan Arıklı, in 2016, under the same name as other parties in the past.

The People’s Party (Halkın Partisi) – HP, a party formed in January 2016 by academic Kudret Özersay.

The Communal Liberation Party New Forces (Toplumcu Kurtuluş Partisi Yeni Güçler) TKP-YG (re)founded in 2016 by Mehmet Çakıcı and others who had left the merger TDP-TKP. They contested the election in alliance with the United Cyprus Party (Birleşik Kıbrıs Partisi) – BKP.

Finally, the Nationalist Democracy Party (Milliyetçi Demokrasi Partisi) – MDP contested the election.

An amendment to the electoral system, while keeping six multi-seat constituencies, allowed a vote for all fifty seats; voters had the option to vote for a party or for candidates on a party list. In the latter case, they could cast from 24 to 50 votes of preference. This complication of the electoral system meant that the huge volume of data released, by ballot box and votes of preference per candidate, make it very hard to provide aggregated distribution of party votes per poll station. This did not allow us to provide a detailed analysis of party influence.

The National Unity Party – UBP won the vote with 35.6%, with the Republican Turkish Party – CTP trailing behind with 20.97%, the People’s Party at 17.10%, the Communal Democracy Party – TDP at 8.61%, the Democratic Party – DP at 7.83 and the Rebirth Party at 6.97%. The novelty was a six-party parliament and a coalition of four parties CTP-TDP-HP-DP, which ensured a majority of 27 seats. Again, the formation of a very fragile government was not a promising development for sustainability.

Abstention hit a new record at 33.93%, with its higher rate in Kyrenia (35.70%) and its lowest in the small constituency of Lefka (29.80%). A record rate of invalid votes (11.53%) may be an indication of a complicated vote system that the electorate failed to understand. In 2013, the rate was at 6.70%. Another explanation might be that voters invalid the ballot to show that they are not happy with any of the political forces. Observers claim that the very high rate of abstention comes from the fact that there is no clearance of electoral rolls; deceased or emigrating voters’ names contribute to abstention appearing inflated.

The higher share for UBP was in Trikomo (38.56%), inhabited mostly by settlers from Turkey, while for CTP it was Lefka (23.47%) and Nicosia (22.19%) constituencies. The new People’s Party received its highest share in Nicosia and Kerynia (18.55%, 18.14%).